GfK: UK Consumer Confidence Remains Stable In August

• Confidence in personal finances is up, but expectations for the UK economy slip for first time since February

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index stood at -13 in August, the same as July. Three measures were up and two were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “The Overall Index Score is unchanged at -13, although there are interesting contrasts behind this headline. On the one hand, our expectations for the UK’s economy are down for the first time since February, with this measure registering a four-point decrease to -15. There’s a three-point drop in how consumers view the economy last over the past year too. At the same time, there are strong personal financial expectations for the coming year with a three-point uptick in this measure to +6. This more positive outlook may be due to a mortgage friendly interest rate cut at the beginning of August – and hopes of more to come. The three-point jump in the Major Purchase Index is great news for retailers with more shoppers agreeing that now is a good time to buy big-ticket items. The wider point beyond the contrasts is that all the key numbers this month are significantly more encouraging than 12 and 24 months ago. But as we move into autumn and winter, how much further will this slow improvement in the mood of the nation run?”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – August 2024

The Overall Index Score stood at -13 in August, the same as July. Three measures were up and two were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up one point at -7; this is eight points better than August 2023.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up three points at +6, which is nine points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down three points at -35; this is 17 points higher than in August 2023.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are down four points at -15; this is 15 points better than August 2023.

Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is up three points to -13; this is 11 points higher than this month last year.

Savings Index
The Savings Index has increased six points to +33; this is six points higher than this time last year.

Measuring 50 Years of Consumer Confidence

January 2024 marked 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability of the Consumer Confidence Barometer. Each month since January 1974, this study has provided insight into how UK consumers feel about their personal finances and the wider economy, as well as the outlook for the next 12 months. Through the winter of discontent, the Falklands War, economic boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic, CCB has seen many highs and lows over five decades.

The highest value of the Overall Index Score – the headline score – was in January 1978, when it reached +21. It reached +16 twice in 1979 (first in July and again in September). The lowest score recorded was -49 in September 2022, and other lows include -39 in July 2008, during the global financial crisis, and a score of - 35 in March 1990, in the lead-up to the 1990/1991 recession. The largest monthly increase was in May 1993 when the headline score jumped 12 points. There have been seven monthly drops of 10 or more since the survey started, with the largest by far happening during the coronavirus crisis when it dropped 25 points from -9 in mid-March 2020 to -34 at the end of March.

Source : GfK

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