GfK: Economic Outlook Still Suppressing The Public’s Mood

• Long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased by one point to -17 in December.
• Two measures were up and three were unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, says:

“In December, consumers adopted the holding pattern we’ve seen for much of 2024, with the one-point increase in the overall Index to -17 very close to the 2024 average of -18. Consumer confidence is still far from strong but there is some room for optimism with views on personal finances over the next 12 months up two points versus November and creeping back into positive territory (at +1). This echoes the encouraging positive scores we saw in this measure from March to August. However, with the major purchase measure unchanged at -16 in December, consumers are still thinking twice about big-ticket purchases and whether they will bring Christmas cheer. Significantly, views on the economy are unchanged from November (-39 over the last 12 months; -26 for the next 12 months) which suggests people don’t know where we are going. We will need to see robust improvements in these perceptions of the economy before we can start talking about sustained improvements in the consumer mood. In a nutshell, it’s the continuing uncharitable view on the UK’s general economic situation that’s suppressing consumer confidence.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – December 2024
The Overall Index Score increased by one point to -17 in December. Two measures were up and three were unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up two points at -7; this is seven points better than December 2023.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up two points at +1, which is three points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is the same as last month at -39; this is five points higher than in December 2023.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are unchanged at -26; this is one point worse than December 2023.

Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is also unchanged at -16; this is seven points higher than this month last year.

Savings Index
The Savings Index has dropped a further three points to +21; this is six points lower than this time last year.

Summary of Consumer Confidence in 2024 

Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, says: “Overall, 2024 has been another year of ups and downs in consumer confidence but much less so compared with recent years. In 2024, there was an eight-point difference between the highest and lowest score. In 2023, it was a difference of 23 points, and in 2022 it was 30 points. So volatility is down but will it stay that way?

Of all the major events in 2024, the UK General Election was the most impactful, with initial post-election optimism giving way to a large seven-point fall in September as consumers were spooked by Government messages about the state of the economy and difficult choices to be made.

Looking at the consumer’s willingness to spend, Black Friday 2024 delivered a vital boost to retailers. Figures from GfK’s point-of-sale data reveal a strong Black Friday sales performance with sales of technology and durables, homeware, and seasonal products up 1.8% in value and 7.7% in volume overall versus Black Friday 2023. Turnover in Black Friday week hit £992 million, a figure that’s 110% better than the average week in 2024.”

Source : GfK, an NIQ company

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