Will 2022 Be The New Normal For Garden Centres?

It appears that the level of sales in April will have been at about the same level as last year. The difference is that this year their sales include restaurant income. They were closed in 2021.

Therefore the like for like product sales have been as low as -25% behind April 2021. As that was an exceptional year, with shops closed and people sheltering at home from the Coronavirus, the fall was expected.

Gardenforum has talked to several leading garden centres to get their views on the rest of the year, their projections, stock levels and Christmas.

John Little - concerned about Christmas stock in time

John Little of Poplars said total sales are ahead of last year. “We're selling hugely more garden furniture than we used to.” But he's not sure what's driving the sales. Is it their increased offer or is it pent up demand? 

He expects this year’s sales to be close to last year. It is hard to say if the volume of sales is ahead of last year because of the level of inflation.

John Little said “We have a lot of stock because the supply chain is so uncertain. Last year we were forward selling furniture and customers had to wait.

“We are not discounting, far from it, any fool can give the stuff away.”

John Little is concerned about the supply of Christmas product because of the lockdowns in China. He has little Christmas stored away from last year.

Martin Stewart - Stewarts have 50% more stock than a year ago

“We're living in pretty confusing times,” says Martin Stewart. “There's nothing normal about this year, I have never felt so unsure how we compare to previous years.” His garden centres were slightly behind last year to date but +8% up on 2019.

He cautioned that the real results will not be known until the end of June. May was awful last year and so should offer the opportunity to catch up. If demand continues into the first couple of weeks of June it will make a massive difference. He expects to be ahead of last year by the year end but not by much.

Stewarts have 50% more stock than a year ago, when stock was hard to get. “This might lead to an excess if spring remains late.”

They will not be discounting. Martin Stewart explained, “We did discount in the first lockdown and we regret it now. With Shanghai being in lockdown again we need the stock.”  You can say goodbye to the just in time model.

Stewarts have twice as much Christmas stock than at the same time last year.

Alan Roper - worried about the race to the bottom

Blue Diamond’s Alan Roper estimates that gardening sales will have been down -18% for the month of April.

He said the fall in sales was only to be expected. He has never believed that there were three million new gardeners. His statistics showed no evidence of them.

Blue Diamond manages the garden centres and the restaurants as two separate businesses. The group has budgeted for product sales to be -6% down this year. Based on sales to the end of April, Alan Roper feels this figure could be under pressure and could be -10%.

The massive increase in furniture demand has pulled forward sales and he expects furniture demand to drop a lot. Volume could be down on 2019.

Blue Diamond is holding more stock but he's not worried because the cash flow is strong. He believes it will take two years to get back to normal levels.

He is concerned about the early signs of other garden centres discounting. He said, “My worry is that people will race to the bottom to maintain volumes.”

He doesn't believe 2023 will be any better because of shrinking disposable income and the deflation of the garden furniture bubble.

Chris Francis – We’re back to a normal year

Sales at Hillier are 3% ahead of last year, but it's very hit and miss. Some centres such as Eastbourne, which is 22% up, are performing very well. 3 weeks ago was Hillier's highest ever week.

Director, Chris Francis sees 2022 as the first normal trading year since 2019 which is too long ago for a meaningful comparison. 2022 will become the benchmark for future years.

Stock levels are good. Hillier is insulated by having its own nursery's so plant areas are full. He also has stockpiled other goods so they won't be short. 

He is surprised at those who are discounting. He will not discount other than the normal clearance activity at the end of the season. Any remaining stock will be carried over to next year.

Martin Breddy – Casual gardeners are giving it another go

Squire's managing director Martin Brady says sales have levelled out at a higher level than before the pandemic. There are more people engaged in gardening now. And he believes that casual new gardeners are giving it another go.

Excluding restaurants, sales are down -15% in April. The number of transactions is healthy but the average sale value has come down. Last year people were making fewer bigger shopping trips.

Squire’s are reasonably confident about May because last year was so wet. It expects sales to fall off a cliff in the conventional way once school holidays start. 2022 will be a more normal year.

Squire’s has plenty of stock, but not too much. Furniture sales are buoyant. The company would frown on any discounting, “There is absolutely no need to discount.”

Julian Winfield expects a good May

Haskins are down 13% for March and April but are up on budget and are expecting a good May.

MD, Julian Winfield said he was relatively optimistic for the next few months. Garden centres do well when there's a cost of living crisis.

Restaurants are running at 75% to 80% of the volumes pre pandemic.

The company is working on a new master plan for Forest Lodge which is likely to become the biggest project they've taken on so far.

Source : Reproduced with permission from George Bullivant, Gardenforum

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