No Christmas Respite For Retail As 2020 Hits Record Low

The latest BRC-KPMG retail sales data, covering the five weeks 29 November 2020 – 2 January 2021, have been released, 

Note - In December, 12 month figures are equivalent to the 2020 annual change on 2019.

• For 2020 overall, Total sales declined 0.3% compared with 2019. Food growth was 5.4% and the Non-Food decline was 5.0% for the year.
  
  
• On a Total basis, sales increased by 1.8% in December, against a growth of 0.2% in December 2019*. It is below the 3-month average growth of 2.5% and above the 12m average decline of 0.3%.
  
  
• UK retail sales increased 4.8% on a Like-for-like basis from December 2019, when they had increased 0.2% from the preceding year*.
  
  
• Over the three months to December, In-Store sales of Non-Food items declined 24.7% on a Total and 14.4% on a Like-for-like basis. For December, the like-for-like excluding temporarily closed stores remained in decline.
  
  
• For 2020 overall, In-Store sales of Non-Food items declined 24.0%, compared with 2019.
  
  
• Over the three months to December, Food sales increased 6.8% on a Like-for-like basis and 7.3% on a Total basis. This is higher than the 12-month Total average growth of 5.4%. For the month of December, Food was in growth year-on-year.
  
  
• Over the three-months to December, Non-Food retail sales increased by 5.1% on a like-for-like basis and declined 1.5% on a Total basis. This is above the 12-month Total average decline of 5.0%. For the month of December, Non-Food was in decline year-on-year.
  
  
• Online Non-Food sales increased by 44.8% in December, against a growth of 6.7% in December 2019*. This is above the 3-mth average of 43.8%.
  
  
• Over 2020, Online Non-Food sales increased by 36.2% compared with 2019.
  
  
• Non-Food Online penetration rate increased from 32.1% in December 2019 to 47.8% this December.

* Note 2020 is a 53-week year in the ONS calendar: as a result of the extra week in January 2020, the comparable 2019 performances cited here may differ from those published last year, due to the one-week shift in the comparison.

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive | British Retail Consortium

“Covid has led to 2020 being the worst year on record for retail sales growth. Physical non-food stores – including all of ‘non-essential’ retail – saw sales drop by a quarter compared with 2019. Christmas offered little respite for these retailers, as many shops were forced to shut during the peak trading period. Though this led to a rise in food-based gifts as many shoppers bought what they could from the shops that were still open.

“With shops still closed for the foreseeable future, costing stores billions in lost sales, many retailers are struggling to survive. To avoid the unnecessary loss of shops and jobs Government should announce an extension to business rates relief for the worst-affected businesses as soon as possible. With many retailers making decisions over their future, the Government must act decisively.”

Paul Martin, UK Head of Retail | KPMG

“In the most important month for the retail industry, there was some positive growth due to the on-going shift of expenditure from other categories such as travel and leisure.  Once again we saw big swings in the types of products being purchased and the channels used for shopping, with much of the growth taking place online where nearly half of all non-food purchases were made. Household related and food item purchases were top of Christmas shopping lists with historic growth rates in contrast to fashion, accessories and beauty products which experienced double-digit declines. 

“Further restrictions and the closure of many non-essential shops resulted in a dismal December performance for those retailers on the high street and conditions will continue to be challenging as we enter another national lockdown. Consumer behaviour will also continue to evolve and retailers must embrace the changes if they are to hold on to hard won customers and generate profitable sales.

”Looking ahead, fortunes will be mixed but pent up savings and a successful vaccine roll out will help support recovery in the retail sector later in the year. Retailers will also be hoping that the reopening of high streets and shopping centres will see a return to more normal levels of footfall.”

Food & Drink sector performance | Susan Barratt, CEO | IGD

“December 2020 saw the highest ever festive spending in the UK food and grocery retail sector and was largely in line with the elevated trend through the year. Tightening restrictions across much of the country limited other sales channels and enabled supermarkets to get the full benefit of people celebrating with food and drink. Though last-minute changes put the brakes on larger family gatherings, shoppers nevertheless sought to make up for their disappointments by trading up to treat themselves and their immediate households with premium and luxury lines.

“IGD’s Shopper Confidence Index remained stable in December, boosted by the introduction of new vaccines for COVID-19. Focus turned to Christmas food shopping and there was a significant uplift in online grocery shopping over the festive period. Shopper confidence will remain fragile as shoppers grapple with the impact of the new national lockdown, economic downturn and a new relationship with the EU.”

Source : BRC-KPMG

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