Indian summer could cost non-food retailers up to £80m a week

It’s a truth universally acknowledged that the weather can strongly influence what we buy. According to previous research by the Met Office, nearly half of UK retailers say weather is among the top three external drivers of demand and the idea is pretty intuitive: if it rains, retailers sell more umbrellas, if it’s cold more coats are sold and if it’s hot shops can find themselves out of stock of paddling pools and barbeque equipment.

The British Retail Consortium and the Met Office have conducted a statistical investigation into how temperature affects UK retail sales. The report highlights a 'clear relationship' between temperature and retail sales, and indicates that warm September weather could cost non-food retailers in the region of £80m a week.

The full publication is available here; highlights follow:

- Warm weather impact is most significant between mid-August to early October, with consumers delaying autumn and winter range purchases.

- For each degree warmer the first week of September is relative to the previous year, the rate of growth of Non-Food sales is reduced by 1.1%, equivalent to around £40m of sales.

- When there is a relationship, it doesn’t always work in the same direction. At sometimes of year warmer weather can help sales, at other times it can hinder them

- The study found little evidence that, at an aggregate level, temperature has a permanent impact on sales. If September is warmer and consumers do not buy as many cold weather products, they spend more on these products once cooler weather finally arrives. However, unseasonal weather can strongly affect monthly growth figures and be easily mistaken for changes in underlying consumer confidence. It can also impact profitability, with retailers selling more stock on discount following a period of unexpectedly weak sales.

The BRC's head of insight and analytics, Rachel Lund, said: "While few in the retail industry would deny that the weather impacts how we shop, the fact that this study reveals that its impact can be large and changeable only serves to highlight some of the complexity retailers have to navigate in serving consumers.

"The ability to understand and respond to unseasonable weather is clearly crucial for retailers wanting to thrive in today's extremely competitive retail market."

Met Office weather analytics manager, Malcolm Lee, said: "Analyses of this type can't predict 'boom or bust' for the high street based on our weather forecasts, but can offer business insight into how weather has impacted on sales in previous years.

Source : Insight DIY and British Retail Consortium

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